Quali sono i problemi sensibili della Cina oggi? Per sensibili intendo riferirmi a quelli che preoccupano esplicitamente la classe dirigente politica?
C'è un'evidente percezione delle crescenti disparità nel Paese. Di qui tutta la retorica sulle aree rurali del Paese che sono 'rimaste indietro' e a cui viene dedicato un po' di spesa pubblica.
Ma il livello di preoccupazione non è determinato tanto dalla gravità di queste disparità quanto dalla possibilità che si tramutino in 'forza politica'. Finché i disperati protestano in modo....disperato Pechino può usare il pugno di ferro e la censura come ha sempre fatto.
Ma c'è una nuova leva non di disperati bensì di possibili delusi: e sono i giovani che hanno studiato sperando, probabilmente di accedere con una certa facilità alle promesse di benessere del sistema. Un dato impressiona in particolare: oggi la Cina ha sei milioni di neolaureati all'anno che - complice la crisi - non sa come collocare. E' gente che parla, usa internet, 'fa opinione'. Non è un caso che la Cina oggi sia il Paese al mondo che sta esercitando la censura più massiccia (e tecnologicamente sofisticata) sulla rete. Propongo, a chi vuole saperne di più l'interessante resoconto fatto da Ivan Franceschini che credo sia oggi la persona in Italia che segue con maggiore comoetenza e passione (è importante anche questa...) il mondo del lavoro e altri aspetti critici della società cinese. Aggiungo, come piccolo contributo integrativo al lavoro di Ivan questa lettura dal Mc Kinsey Quarterly.
Ho effettuato un po' di tagli su altri temi , anche interessanti, toccati dal dibattito per arrivare al punto in questione. Farei un'ulteriore osservazione: quello della mancanza di sbocchi per i giovani 'che hanno studiato' non è un problema esclusivamente cinese. Da noi ci sono migliaia di laureati che lavorano nei call center. In Giordania i medici sono costretti a emigrare. Tra gli immigrati che da noi fanno le consegne a domicilioci sono dottori in chimica e tra le badanti e domestiche molte hanno lauree in legge o almeno un diploma di maestre. Se c'è qualcuno che ancora pensa che 'le forze spontanee di mercato' sono il migliore modo di allocare le risorse nel mondo di oggi, batta un colpo...
China’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the midst of a worldwide slump. How has the country coped with the financial crisis? Is China finally emerging as an engine of global demand? Can its economy generate enough new jobs to maintain social stability? What will drive future growth? How should foreign firms in China adapt? In this interview, conducted by McKinsey’s Janamitra Devan in March 2009 in Beijing, four distinguished members of the McKinsey Council on China Business Economists explore these questions. Watch the video, or read the transcript below.
How do you define “recession” for a country like China?
David Li: I wouldn’t say “recession.” I would characterize it as an expanded time-out [of the growth of the economy]. The Chinese urbanization rate has been slower than the industrialization rate. And right now, China is making up for its slow pace of urbanization. And urbanization is the major engine for the economy of the world. As we speak, in Beijing, there are three or four subway lines being built underground. We don’t see them; they are very busy working on this. And Beijing is not exceptional. There are many, many other cities in which these [types of] things are happening.
What is wrong or right about China’s composition of GDP?
David Li: What is appropriate and what is not appropriate depends on the time horizon. In the long run, the current structure of GDP definitely is crazy, right? It’s inappropriate, because we are having only about 50 percent—actually, 49.5 percent—of GDP each year absorbed by consumption. That’s too low a ratio of consumption. That’s the long-term point of view.
However, facing the impact of the financial crisis, there’s no other choice but to increase the proportion of investment. If consumption cannot be boosted in the short run, the only answer is investment. Investment typically, in the past few years, accounted for 45 percent of GDP. This year, I would predict that investment would even go up as high as 60 percent of GDP.
So, that’s the only thing to do, right? Because otherwise, there’s no way to provide enough jobs. If you cannot provide enough jobs for the young kids and the college graduates, they are going to complain. The social pressure will be so high. So, to me 8 percent is the minimum [needed] to provide enough jobs.
Tang Min: I think China needs a major structural change. And that structural change, mainly, is domestic demand and more job creation and less dependence on the global market. And this pattern can only be achieved if the government invests more in the service sector, if the policy is more favorable to the service sector—to small and medium-size enterprises, to private-sector development.
David Li: In the short run, there are very few options but to keep a reasonably fast pace of GDP growth through heavy investments. In the long run, after the financial crisis, sure, we definitely will work hard, improving the structure of the economy.
Chi Wei: I’m concerned about this huge investment infrastructure in such a short period of time. Is there any way you can guarantee that this investment will be effective? Once you put the railway there or highway there, if it’s not going to be productive, it’s redundant. It’s a waste of resources at the expense of the high growth.
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Janamitra Devan: Chi Wei, a question to you as a labor economist. What is your view on job losses so far?
Chi Wei: Well, in terms of total numbers, it’s striking. And in terms of structure, most of the losses have been in the manufacturing and exporting industries. And the group of people who have been hit most by the financial crisis and the downturn is migrant workers. They don’t really show up in official statistics, because they go back home. They’re not counted as a base of the total labor force. But their welfare has to be considered. And there should be more policy to help them.
Janamitra Devan: Is that a major concern of the Chinese government right now?
Xiao Geng: We probably have 200 million migrant workers. And then also, you know, these migrant workers, they are supposed to have a piece of land in their village so they have a kind of safety net that they can go back to. And also the food price in China is quite low, you know. So it’s not like in the US, where if you lose your job, you’re in trouble, you have to pay mortgage, everything, you have to pay. So, this is a group of people who don’t have any mortgage, you know. As long as they can have enough to eat, basically, they are largely fine. I think it’s manageable.
Tang Min: This misunderstands the current new migrants. In fact, we did some surveys in the rural areas. The majority of those who go back—the migrants who lose their jobs—are young people. They may have a piece of land, but, when they graduate from high school, right away they move to the city. They have never done farm work. So for them, it’s very difficult to go back and stay in the farm area. And the income in farm areas is maybe only one-tenth of what they are getting in the cities. Also, once people lose their job it means the whole family loses out, because there are many families in the rural areas that are very low income and depend on the money that’s sent back. Now, when people lose money, the whole family is forced back into poverty. So, it is actually quite serious.
David Li: I think the migrant workers losing jobs, relatively speaking, is less of a social problem [than] college graduates who are looking for jobs but cannot get jobs. After all, these migrant workers are scattered in the countryside. They are not so well organized. In contrast, we have college graduates. They are concentrated in large cities. And if a significant proportion of these people cannot get jobs—say, ten percent—these students, they are together, they are in cities, they are communicating with each other. So it is not unimaginable for these kids to organize something, organize some kind of protests in urban areas. So, in my mind, the college graduates’ employment is a much, much bigger problem than the migrant workers losing jobs.
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